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Gambler's Fallacy

What Is the Gambler's Fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy is the idea that short-term outcomes have the same frequency as long-term outcomes. The most common example is flipping a coin. The odds of heads coming up on any flip are one in two, or 1-to-1, or 50 percent.If you flip a coin nine times in a row and it comes up tails every time, what are the odds that it will come up heads the tenth time? Many people will say that the odds are very great that the tenth flip will come up heads. In fact, the odds are still 50-50. The coin has no memory of prior events. Before flipping, the odds of ten heads in a row would be very long, but once the nine heads have already occurred, the odds of another head are still 1-to-1.

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the false belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future.

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending upon recent occurrences.

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